Synthetic Multi–Messenger Catalogs for Gravitational-Wave Cosmology
Name: RANIER MENOTE LEMES SILVA
Publication date: 06/02/2026
Examining board:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| CLECIO ROQUE DE BOM | Examinador Interno |
| FELIPE ANDRADE-OLIVEIRA | Examinador Externo |
| LUCA AMENDOLA | Examinador Externo |
| ODYLIO AGUIAR | Examinador Externo |
| RICCARDO STURANI | Examinador Interno |
Pages
Summary: In the current cosmological landscape, gravitational waves (GWs) have been gradually
establishing themselves as a powerful new class of cosmological distance indicators,
offering an independent avenue to probe the expansion history of the Universe beyond
the traditional electromagnetic distance ladder. With the advent of third generation
(3G) gravitational–wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope and the Cosmic
Explorer, the number of detected compact binary coalescences is expected to increase by
orders of magnitude, opening a data–rich era for multi–messenger cosmology. This new
observational regime demands the development of simulation frameworks capable of
producing realistic, statistically controlled synthetic catalogs that consistently combine
gravitational wave signals, electromagnetic counterparts, and host–galaxy populations
within a cosmological context.
In this thesis, we develop a comprehensive framework for constructing synthetic multi–
messenger catalogs tailored for gravitational–wave cosmology. The methodology inte-
grates astrophysically motivated models for compact binary populations (BBH, BNS,
and BHNS systems), merger–rate densities, host–galaxy properties derived from the
LSST CosmoDC2 synthetic galaxy catalog, realistic detector network configurations,
waveform prescriptions, and the modeling of electromagnetic counterparts, including
kilonova emission in LSST photometric bands. The resulting catalogs provide com-
plete sets of intrinsic and extrinsic source parameters, network detectability criteria,
parameter uncertainty estimates based on Fisher–matrix techniques, sky localization
information, and photometric properties of electromagnetic counterparts.
We perform a detailed statistical characterization of the generated catalogs, quantify-
ing detection rates, parameter uncertainties, correlations, and selection effects across
different detector networks, duty cycles, and waveform models. Particular emphasis
is placed on the impact of next–generation detector configurations on sky localization,
distance precision, and the detectability of kilonova counterparts in LSST–like surveys.
As a first cosmological application, we employ the synthetic catalogs to perform bright–
siren analyses, forecasting constraints on the Hubble constant and other cosmological
parameters under realistic observational scenarios. Our results demonstrate that fu-
ture multi–messenger datasets will enable high–precision cosmological measurements,
offering a competitive and independent probe of cosmic expansion and providing new
avenues to test cosmological models and fundamental physics.
The synthetic multi–messenger framework developed in this work constitutes a flexi-
ble and extensible tool designed to support the preparation of the community for up-
coming gravitational–wave surveys, enabling controlled studies of astrophysical popula-
tions, observational strategies, and cosmological inference in the era of third–generation
gravitational–wave astronomy.
